Internet Service Providers

While the digital divide still runs rampant, more and more places are getting access to high speed internet. With the recent development of WiMax, pushing signals into more rural settings, it seems that providers in North America and abroad are very interested in making their service available to the largest section of the population as they can. Where they fall behind, however, is just how the service works once you’ve gotten to the last mile and the connection is fed into your home. In countries like Japan, having an internet connection capable of pushing gigabytes of information at a fast pace is not all too uncommon. Fibre-optic systems are available in a more widespread manner than in most places, and even many countries in Europe have growing connection speeds and continually developing infrastructure.

In North America, ISPs seem content to keep the infrastructure very much the way it currently is, attributing bottlenecks and connection slow-downs to the rampant piracy and abuse of their systems that seems to occur on a regular basis. In Canada, the home user’s capacity on the largest available internet service peaks at 95GB, or just under 2 copies of a double-layer Blu-Ray disc. Of course, the speed is still running through cable, and given an average of 6 GB for an average retail game, at peak speed it would still take 80 minutes to download. Many provides are beginning to open up to the idea of fibre services, with Verizon offering one in the United States currently that does allow for speeds up to 50 mbps, five times that currently available at the highest of most DSL and cable outlets.

Given the size of North America in both geography and market value for the gaming industry, the idea of digital distribution poses significant problems. ISPs seem focused more on limiting services and clearing the system of high traffic use with bandwidth caps and deep packet inspection becoming common industry practices. With the massive costs associated with overhauling networking infrastructures, it seems unlikely that many companies will take up the battle of replacing slower bandwidth lines with newer, more advanced systems that allow users to take up the digital lifestyle. This not counting the lack of availability in many areas which still draws many people into the retail space and off the list for a digital market.

If the next generation of consoles is going to spend more time focused on online markets, then they have to be the drivers in the changes that the ISPs must deliver on. Just as the movie and music industry seems to be driving the concepts of punishing users caught pirating media, the games industry needs to take notice of the problem, with lobbying groups such as the ESA and ECA ensuring that when the time is right that steps can be made to allow the online space to open. Given the shrinking scope of what is being allowed, and the growing issue of net neutrality, this issue will likely be the largest hurdle going forward.

Development Cost and People Costs

It’s no secret that big games cost big money, and it’s also no secret that games are getting bigger and bigger. While this is not true across the board, the concept of larger, more expansive games seems to be something that is shrinking in favour of the indie circuit, and more focused and content-driven experiences. Even Sony’s darling for this year, LittleBigPlanet is being developed by a team that has only 30 people on the team. On the other hand, games like Gears of War 2 and Resistance 2 having near 80 people per team, longer development cycles and expansive universes that require more technology, more art design and generally larger budgets in order to satisfy the requirements. There will always be a market for these games, but as the consoles become more and more complex and diverse, developing on the systems will continue to be a money drain for many publishers, who are beginning to see the benefits of smaller, more focused games that can draw in a large profit if marketed and built for the right audience.

As the industry grows, the amount of talent that moves into it also grows. Many walk into the industry with the stigma that EA Spouse set many years ago that developers are overworked and underpaid and rarely see the benefits of a good game, but suffer the consequences of negative press and lower than anticipated average review scores. This is pushing a lot of talent into the smaller projects, with indie games now the forefront of most media enthusiasm. Games like Braid and Castle Crashers continue to grab headlines and bring audiences in an industry that was very focused on the pushing of technology only a few years ago. And these games are developed by teams only an exclusive few, with ideas driven by game design rather than tech. The appeal of reaping the profits from these concepts seems to be an attractive one moving forward, and considering the development on the PSN, and the upcoming indie-driven marketplace for Xbox Live, XNA, the smaller teams may be in the drivers seat for next generation trends as much as the larger groups are.

For PC games, the idea of technology is always a concern. The hardware market for PCs is what drives the tech that is being utilize by the developers, games like Crysis notorious for the pain it can cause a low-end to moderate computer system, and how it pushes the limits for high end models even today. With the GPU developers seemingly taking steps back, and companies like nVidia losing ground more and more each day, the idea of integrated GPUs into motherboards from companies like Intel and AMD (owners of video card company ATI) seems to be the growing “next-gen” concept. At this point, the concept of singularity that we see in consoles becomes more and more a reality for PC gamers, moving the larger scale games onto the system stronger than we’re seeing now. It is a tough market to predict, however, and with growing concerns from major publishers about the distribution of their games, and even games slated for Microsoft’s consoles not scheduled to arrive on Windows, perhaps the future of PC gaming will move alongside consoles further into the digital realm. It is already seeing a stronger trend in that way, with many major games being distributed online rather than in stores through services like Steam.

The cost of developing across platforms is also a growing concern. With many companies choosing sides, whether it be primarily developing for Xbox or PS3 or Wii, the focus tends to lie with one of them at the expense of the other. While games for the Xbox and PS3 remain in very similar scopes, Nintendo’s system sits in a class of its own and seems to require a more focused approach that many developers are choosing to ignore. With the tech differing so vastly, one of the limits you can expect to see being pushed by developers is the cost for delivering their content across the most space. If the industry becomes too disjointed in terms of its delivery systems, many of the large titles will see drops in production. Where the movie industry has DVDs and Blu-Ray discs that play in their respective players across all boards, with the cost of development for products being a one-time thing, the model for this may be coming to consoles sooner than we think.

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