Whether it is affecting you directly or not, it seems the world markets are in turmoil. Jobs are being lost, stock prices are plummeting, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria, etc. As people around the world continue to struggle, it becomes continually more difficult to justify that impulse purchase of a video game in stores. Perhaps you’ve got strict budgets at home, maybe the credit crunch is causing interest rates on your allowance to jump so high you can barely make minimum payments. Either way, it makes you look at the price tag at least once, maybe twice, before plucking that brand new game off the shelf to add to your stunning collection. Sure, there are ways to balance the budget, but perhaps you’re simply hoping that prognosticator Peter Molyneux’s prediction regarding the price of games being put under pressure this year will start to have an impact, bringing the sum into a range where you can justify grabbing a few titles simply for achievement points.

At the end of the year I talked a bit about some industry veterans and their predictions for the future (our present), included was Peter Molyneux as part of the original article from the BBC. What I didn’t mention was the fact that Molyneux mentioned that he believed considerable pressure would be put on retailers in terms of the price of games in the coming months, and it was something a lot of other media outlets focused on when that interview went live. Economic woes betide, as it were, and many believe that as money becomes more of a precious commodity that game prices will have to reflect the growing society of paucity. Basically, as the rate of disposable income drops, so too will game sales. It makes sense then that prices should be heading in a downward direction, but perhaps that isn’t the stance that many publishers are willing to take just yet.

It is hard not to notice that many games debut at retail for 70 dollars (USD/CDN) versus the industry norm of 60. Often price differences like that are due to included hardware or perhaps a sense of scarcity with less sought after products, but as I peruse a few websites in the US and Canada and notice that the new Afro Samurai and Fallout 3. It’s the same price as iNiS’ karaoke game Lips which comes bundled with two wireless microphones, and always turns my head when I catch wind of it. Call of Duty: World At War has carried a similar price tag through most of the holiday season and new year, with the occasional outlet offering a ten dollar discount to bring it to an acceptable price. Three big new games with three separate publishers all taking the same stance: you will pay for our products at whatever price we deem suitable. The latter two examples, since they are the only ones that have been released so far, have had considerable critical and market success despite the high prices, so is this a demonstration that big publishers won’t be dropping games into firesale territories any time soon? Yes, for big budget titles, don’t expect huge discounts to be forthcoming.

To bring a little politics into it for those in the United States, the newly elected administration has announced significant bailout to the tune of billions, and are fixing the deficit issues that run deep across the world by printing more money. That means inflation rates are wont to increase, and as such you will see a higher intake of income, but non-essential commodities will raise in cost to the retailers and therefore bring prices a bit higher. That combined with news that many retailers will be more cautious with the kinds of games they stock [link via Kotaku] means that you could see a very frivolous rarity tax tacked onto the purchase of not-so-high demand games. Imports and indie titles having a harder time to hit shelves means that prices will have to remain higher in order to bring the same amount of revenue through the doors.

While the economy tanking and video game sales continuing to grow worldwide may seem to be a perfect storm leading to lower prices and the happiness of millions around the world, remember that the folks stocking these games are hit hard by banks tightening up on loans. Industry leaders will be playing things close to the chest with bad PR ready to stomp a game completely and game retailers will be more selective with space in their stores, perhaps increasing big money makers instead of focusing on the high-cost, low-return new products. We are seeing games being used by big box stores as lost leaders, in that they are put on sale in order to draw traffic in the store at a loss in profits in order to get folks to buy more cost-friendly items, but those sales are coming at a result of inflated game prices in some cases. While I imagine older titles will see a steeper, quicker drop, anything in demand is going to maintain its price in order to ensure a good return for the publisher and retailer, and perhaps at the cost of shuffled material at a good discount. Just be wary that the next time you see a triple A title go on sale, it might mean that you should grab it instead of waiting for an “inevitable” price drop that may not come for quite some time.